Abstract
Theory predicts that attribution bias creates overconfident traders and thus causes excessive trading in the market. This paper tests this prediction by comparing the trading behavior of individual investors in different market conditions. In a bull market, investors suffer more from attribution bias and therefore should be more overconfident and trade more excessively. Using the trading records of Chinese individual investors from January 2005 to November 2008, we find that individual investors trade more excessively, measured by higher turnover and poorer performance, in a bull market than in a bear market.
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