Donor-side evaluation of the spatiotemporal variation in the rural land natural capital value and its influencing factors: A case study of Chongqing, China

Abstract

Measuring the value of natural capital provides decision support in regard to the trade-off between natural capital use and protection. Evaluating the natural capital value of land from the perspective of the rural land ecosystem is helpful for better understanding its value. Moreover, research on the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of the natural capital value of land facilitates determination of the rural land natural capital value (RLNCV) evolution trend. This study constructed an accounting system of the RLNCV in Chongqing from the donor side based on emergy theory combined with a spatial analysis method. The spatiotemporal characteristics, spatial correlation, and spatial differentiation in the RLNCV were studied. The main conclusions are described as follows: (1) The RLNCV in Chongqing increased year by year, from 31.035 billion yuan in 2005 to 204.087 billion yuan in 2018. The high-value areas were mainly distributed in the northeast and southeast regions, and the low-value areas were largely located in the Metropolitan Economic Circle (MEC) and the region around the main city. The change rates of most districts and counties in the southeastern region were high, while those of certain districts and counties in the northeastern region were low. However, due to the large base, the value was relatively high. (2) The global Moran's I of the RLNCV in Chongqing increased from 0.602 in 2005 to 0.624 in 2018, indicating that the geographical spatial autocorrelation was increasing, there was a spatial agglomeration effect, and the coefficient of variation increased from 0.096 in 2005 to 0.808 in 2018; these findings indicate that the regional difference was increasing, and the spatial imbalance was notable. (3) The RLNCV spatial association types in Chongqing indicated a significant positive correlation-related agglomeration distribution. The high-value agglomeration association types were mainly distributed in the northeastern and southeastern regions, and the low-value agglomeration association types largely occurred in the western part of the region near the main city. (4) The rainfall factor attained the highest explanatory power regarding the spatial differentiation in the RLNCV in Chongqing, and the human activity factor had limited influence. However, the synergistic effect of the human and socioeconomic factors continuously increased, and the influence of the policy factors increased. Chongqing was as selected the case study in this work, and it yields important reference significance for rural land natural capital evaluation in the unique area of human-land relationship change and facilitates the implementation of appropriate government policies for rural land natural resource management. Based on this study, policymakers should optimize the spatial differentiation control mechanism, accounting evaluation mechanism, and green development. This study provides a reference for understanding the RLNCV from the donor side and can guide the maintenance and appreciation of natural capital in areas with complex and diverse human land relationships and unbalanced development.