Donor Country’s Fiscal Status and ODA Decisions before and after 2008 Global Financial Crisis

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the impact of donor's fiscal status on aid decisions before and after the 2008 global financial crisis. The effects on aid can change depending on the donor country's fiscal status and the period of financial crisis. Research design, data, and methodology - A fixed effect regression and dynamic panel GMM is conducted using a comprehensive dataset combining 31 donor and 167 recipient countries during 1996-2015. The key explanatory variable is central government debt-to-GDP ratio of donor country. Recipient countries' GNI per capita, population, governance indicators, and bilateral trade-to-GDP ratio between donor and recipient countries are included as control variables. Results - We can confirm the relationship between donor country's fiscal status and aid flow. The cyclical component of government debt is found to have a negative impact on grant decisions particularly after the 2008 global financial crisis. This effect becomes larger in the countries with high government debt-to-GDP ratio. ODA decisions from the countries with low financial constraint do not significantly affected by the recipient countries' factors such as GNI, population, and governance indicator. Conclusions - Based on the empirical results of this study, the source of aid should be diversified by incorporating private sector and innovative financing sources.