Dominant change pattern of extreme precipitation and its potential causes in Shandong Province, China

Abstract

Due to global warming, global and regional extreme precipitation events occur frequently, causing severe drought and flood disasters. This has a significant impact on productivity and human life. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the characteristics of extreme precipitation and its spatiotemporal variation. In this study, we investigate the dominant variation patterns of extreme precipitation (EP), which is characterized by indices, and also analyze its potential causes in the Shandong province of China during 1961–2015 using the daily precipitation data from 123 metrological stations. The results show that there has been a dry trend in the Shandong Province in the past 55 years, that is, with the decrease in precipitation, most of the extreme precipitation index has basically showed a downward trend to varying degrees. In particular, the increase in the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) and the decrease in the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) can better explain the drought in this region. After the 1980s, the extreme precipitation index basically showed an upward trend to varying degrees, indicating that extreme precipitation events have shown an increasing trend in recent years. The spatial distribution of each extreme precipitation index generally increased from north to south. The mutation of each extreme precipitation index occurred in the 1970s and 1990s, and there was a main period of 0.9–2.2 years. In terms of influencing factors, the NINO3 area can be used as the critical sea area for the response of extreme precipitation to SSTAs in the Shandong Province. The research results are helpful to understand the temporal and spatial variations of extreme precipitation and have very important reference value for the prediction of and response to climate change and extreme events in the future.