Dollarization in Central and Eastern European countries: essence, genesis, interrelation

Abstract

The paper is devoted to scientific-theoretical and econometric analysis of dollarization on the example of Central and Eastern European countries. The views of scientists on the essence of the investigated category are generalized; the presence of high degree pluralism, particularly among Ukrainian researchers is determined. The authors’ definition, according to which the necessary conditions for dollarization in the economy such as: the recognition by residents the ability of foreign currency to perform one or more national money’s functions and systematic use of such currency in cash and/or non-cash circulation is given. Three-dimensional classification of dollarization, consistent with the modern money theory, according to the criteria of penalty, state recognition and performance of specific money’s functions is presented. Genesis and manifestations of inferred types are investigated. The global level of commitment to the U.S. dollar as the most common settlement and reserve currency is defined according to the global statistics of cross-border payments and the currency composition of the official central banks’ reserves. Methodological approaches for determining the level of dollarization of the economy, the most common of which – dollarization of money supply according to IMF and external debt–to–GDP ratio illustrated by statistics of 9 Central and Eastern European countries with own currencies are analyzed. It is determined that the high level of dollarization indicates the substitutionary competition between national and foreign money, where the latter are considered as a key factor for entering the global financial and commodity markets. According to the results of construction, estimation and re-estimation of BVAR dollarization model of Ukraine, Belarus, Poland and Russia, the significant causal relationship between the share of the currency component in the money supply of Russia and Poland and the corresponding indicators of Belarus and Ukraine is proved. This substantiates the previous conclusions about the unity of the dollarization evolutionary logic in historically close economies. The need for further empirical research of provoking and restraining factors of dollarization in Central and Eastern European countries is emphasized.