Abstract
We report on two independent failures to conceptually replicate findings by Ballard & Lewandowsky (Ballard and Lewandowsky 2015 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20140464 (doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0464)), who showed that certainty in, and concern about, projected public health issues (e.g. impacts of climate change) depend on how uncertain information is presented. Specifically, compared to a projected range of outcomes (e.g. a global rise in temperature between 1.6°C and 2.4°C) by a certain point in time (the year 2065), Ballard & Lewandowsky (Ballard and Lewandowsky 2015 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20140464 (doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0464)) showed that focusing people on a certain outcome (a global rise in temperature of at least 2°C) by an uncertain time-frame (the years 2054–2083) increases certainty in the outcome, and concern about its implications. Based on two new studies that showed a null effect between the two presentation formats, however, we recommend treating the projection statements featured in these studies as equivalent, and we encourage investigators to find alternative ways to improve on existing formats to communicate uncertain information about future events.
Highlights
Scientists, policy-makers and public health organizations frequently communicate information about climate change and other public health issues in probabilistic terms
We report on two independent failures to conceptually replicate findings by Ballard & Lewandowsky
Increasing the temporal proximity of a risk, as explained earlier, should reduce its relative abstractness, potentially increasing feelings of certainty and concern about an issue. By including this trade-off as a factor in a replication study, we tested whether relative temporal proximity to a projected outcome would increase people’s certainty that the outcome is real, and concern about the issue
Summary
Scientists, policy-makers and public health organizations frequently communicate information about climate change and other public health issues in probabilistic terms. A focus on a certain effect expected within an uncertain time-frame, as devised by Ballard & Lewandowsky, may increase certainty and reduce the overall abstractness of a given future risk, while communicating the same underlying information as the traditional focus on a range of outcomes by a certain time (figure 1 for an example). Increasing the temporal proximity of a risk, as explained earlier, should reduce its relative abstractness, potentially increasing feelings of certainty and concern about an issue By including this trade-off as a factor in a replication study, we tested whether relative temporal proximity to a projected outcome would increase people’s certainty that the outcome is real, and concern about the issue. We encourage investigators to find alternative ways to counteract the tendency for many people to motivationally distort uncertain information about future events
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