Does voting end at the water’s edge? Canadian public opinion and voter intentions, 2006–2015

Abstract

Public attitudes on Canadian foreign policy matters have received growing attention in recent years, both to understand the nature of public opinion and the effects of public preferences on decision makers. This article offers a contribution on both fronts, focusing on the study of specific events (policies and political messaging) rather than grand principles. By doing so, we offer a novel approach to assess the level of public support enjoyed by the Harper’s government international policy. Also, we compare public attitudes toward the events with voter intention data to evaluate whether the level of popular support for governmental decisions on international issues correlates with electoral gains or losses for the ruling party. This article concludes that public opinion was highly supportive of the Conservative government foreign policy, but that this did not translate into a systematic increase in voter intention. In this sense, foreign policy decisions did not produce electoral payoffs for the ruling party.