Abstract
It has been empirically shown in the USA that a positive slope of the yield curve is associated with a future increase in real economic activity. However, the present study's empirical examination reveals that the term structure in Japan has almost no predictive power for real economic changes, whereas it does in Canada and the USA. Further, the additional investigation, which exploits spectral analysis, clarifies that the yield-curve's slope and real economic growth in the USA and Canada have similar cyclical components. However, the term structure in Japan exhibits few business cycle components, and this may account for the lack of predictive power.
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