Abstract
Geopolitical risk is an important factor driving the change in energy prices, especially the recent Russia-Ukraine conflict. The gasoline price is essential to national economic development and social stability. How does the Russia-Ukraine conflict affect gasoline prices in various countries? The paper constructs a regression discontinuity (RD) model to analyze the influence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on gasoline prices to solve this problem. There are some important findings. (1) Gasoline prices in countries with greater than zero external dependence on crude oil are vulnerable to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. (2) The Russia-Ukraine conflict can increase gasoline prices by affecting international crude oil prices. (3) The Russia-Ukraine conflict can increase gasoline prices by affecting inflation rates. Some related policy suggestions are also proposed.
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