Does the resumption of international tourism heighten COVID-19 transmission?

Abstract

Reopening countries also carries the risk of another wave of infections in many parts of the world, raising the question of whether we are ready to reopen our countries. This study examines the impact of reopening countries to receive foreign tourists on the spread of COVID-19 in 2022, encompassing 83 countries worldwide. We employ spatial quantile models capable of analyzing the spatial impact of tourism on the spread of the virus at different quantile levels. The research categorizes countries into three groups: low infection rate (10th-30th quantiles), moderate infection rate (40th-60th quantiles), and high infection rate (70th-90th quantiles). This allows for a more comprehensive and detailed comparison of the impacts. Additionally, considering the spatial dimension enables the explanation of both the direct and indirect effects of tourists on the country itself and neighboring countries. The findings reveal that the number of international tourists has a significant effect on the COVID-19 infection rate, particularly in countries with high initial infection rates. However, countries that effectively controlled their infection rates at a low level could maintain a low infection rate even after reopening to foreign tourists. It is also observed that reopening a country's borders negatively impacts the infection rate of neighboring countries. These important findings imply that governments of highly infected countries should shift their focus towards bolstering their economy by promoting domestic tourism and should delay reopening until the number of infections decreases.