Does the COVID-19 pandemic affect the tourism industry in China? Evidence from extreme quantiles approach

Abstract

The tourism industry carries great significance in the economic development of any country. It has been observed that the COVID-19 crisis has affected global travel and tourism more than any other sector globally as well as in China. The travel restrictions, home isolation, and quarantine orders have given massive damage to China's once thriving tourism industry. Despite this phenomenal impact, the existing literature has a dearth of empirical studies related to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry. This study attempts to reflect a thorough picture of the current scenario and the crisis effects under different intensities reflected through quantiles of Covid-19 related deaths. The study has utilized the QARDL model and the Wald test on the daily time series data of COVID-19 intensity, the real effective exchange rate, oil prices, and the tourism development index from January 1, 2020, to March 15, 2021. The outcomes indicate that COVID-19 related deaths have a negative, but significant impact on China's tourism in the long run and short run. The oil prices also show a negative influence on tourism in the long run, but there is no significant impact of the oil prices on tourism in the short run. At the same time, the increase in the real effective exchange rates tends to support tourism in the long run, but does not influence tourism development in the short run.