Does the cohort approach say more about convergence in divorce trends? The case of post-socialist Czechia and Slovakia after dissolution in 1993

Abstract

Abstract: This study investigates whether convergence or divergence in divorce trends occurred in two countries with common history and legislative framework measured both by transversal and cohort methods and tries to predict some short-term trends as well. Slovakia and Czechia are countries with a common history and divorce legislation, in which the post-1989 social transformation began at the same time as the start of independent development. It is therefore possible to compare retrospectively the transformation of marital dissolution over three decades in the context of social transformation as well as the development in separate state units. Despite the attractiveness of research so focused, there are surprisingly few comprehensive comparative studies of marital dissolution in such countries. Several transversal and longitudinal indicators have been calculated to compare both countries in the last three decades. A synthetic index of differentiation has been applied then. The Arima model for prediction has been applied and qualitative assumptions on divorce factors are discussed, too. Seemingly clear differences and developmental patterns in the intensity of divorce measured in a transversal way are not as evident in the case of longitudinal analysis of marriage cohorts. The reality of the transformation of family dissolution is simply more complex; the factor of the changing timing of the process – the duration of a marriage – also comes into play and cohort analysis is essential in discovering the changing divorce patterns.