Does the Candidate Really Matter?

Abstract

Differences between the character traits of candidates are thought to critically influence presidential elections. Yet most research assessing the impact of candidate traits relies on citizen perceptions, which may be biased by a citizen’s prior dispositions toward candidates. In this article, the author addresses two questions that together have not been directly addressed in previous studies of candidate effects in presidential elections: First, how do candidates influence citizen perceptions of candidate traits? Second, to what extent are perceptions a cause and consequence of an overall candidate evaluation? With data from National Election Studies (NES) surveys, this article models the traits and perceptions of Democratic and Republican presidential candidates from 1980 to 2000. The author finds that despite the tendency of citizens to perceive more favorable traits in candidates they like, the candidates’own traits do condition citizen perceptions, yet this effect varies across traits and is surprisingly modest. The implications of these results for understanding the role of candidates in U.S. presidential elections are discussed.