Does the analytical hierarchy process help appraisers make better decisions? A quasi-experimental approach for property investment comparables

Abstract

PurposeIncome from investment properties can fluctuate depending on the state of the economy. The idea that there is always a potential exit (sale) value whenever the property stops performing at its optimum or deflation in the economy will always appeal to investors. To determine housing prices, investors would rely on a direct comparison approach (DCA) of recent substitute sales in the open market. Appraisers use this approach to develop an opinion of value when there is a plethora of recent sales to analyse.Design/methodology/approachThe study was designed to establish the use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) approach as a support tool for deciding property appraisals. A case study of an industrial single-storey stand-alone building with grade-level parking in the south-east of Calgary, Canada, was investigated with the AHP approach. The result was cross-referenced with the DCA.FindingsUsing a consistency index of 0.077321 and a consistency ratio of 0.085912, the matrix multiplication was determined to be 0.456706. The average valuations derived from the adjusted price per square foot using the direct comparison method and the unadjusted price per square foot using the AHP were deemed the best value estimate in the light of available comparables. The implications of the findings suggest that AHP, as a quantitative technique, can support and validate the use of similar non-recent sale comparables when appraising investment properties with the DCA.Originality/valueAHP is an alternative aid in quantitatively deciding the most significant value attribute for comparison before subjective adjustments. When intuitively applied in the DCA, these subjective adjustments almost always lead to an overvaluation of properties.