Abstract
We analyze the impact on US tourist flows to Israel of variations in both the actual intensity of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the intensity implicit in US television news coverage. Conditional on actual events, changes in reported conflict intensity could influence tourists because alternative sources of information are costly; this explanation is consistent with a rational choice model. However, television news could influence tourist behavior because of its emotional impact, or because it causes the conflict to be brought to mind more readily, increasing the subjective probability of conflict events. We find that tourists respond to variations in actual Israeli casualties and reported Palestinian casualties; both effects are large. Reports of Israeli casualties and unreported Palestinian casualties have no significant impact on tourist flows. These asymmetries are consistent with asymmetric information costs within a rational choice framework, but are more difficult to square with the alternative explanations for media influence.
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