Does Russian election interference damage support for US alliances? The case of Japan

Abstract

Scholars and practitioners often argue that the United States’ identity as a democracy contributes to the effectiveness and endurance of US military alliances. One way to test this claim is to ask: what would happen if citizens of allied countries came to perceive US democracy as severely flawed or diminished? In the context of now well-documented Russian interference in recent US elections, we examine whether Russia’s election interference and its perceived impact on American democracy damage foreign public opinion about the United States. The results of our survey experiment fielded in Japan suggest that information about successful Russian election interference—that is, interference that had an impact on the election outcome—reduces foreign citizens’ faith in the United States as an ally. This pattern most clearly manifests in reduced belief in the US capacity to defend Japan. Our study sheds light on the connections between the image of the United States, both as a trustworthy and effective state, and the foreign public’s attitudes toward US alliances, with theoretical and practical implications.