Does Revitalizing the Center of Mid-Sized French Cities Reduce GHG Emissions from Commuting?

Abstract

Mid-sized cities are usually considered in the literature to be shrinking cities. Some policies promote right-sizing and others promote revitalization. The relationship between land-use planning and mobility having been established, the present research issue is focused on whether a policy of revitalizing the centers of mid-sized cities is favorable to low-carbon mobility. Our study investigates commuting trips through two indicators: commuting trip distance and car modal share. The increase in total population, the increase in the number of jobs per resident, the decrease in the unemployment rate, the increase in the rate of executives, the increase in the rate of working people in the population and the decrease in the residential vacancy rate all come from the censuses of 2006 and 2016. Statistical models based on individuals in 113 mid-sized cities, in which sociodemographic variables are introduced, show that at the level of agglomerations, no indicator has a simultaneously positive effect in the center and in the urban periphery. No indicator is entirely positive or negative on GHG emissions from commuting trips. While the increase in GHG emissions from commuting trips between 2006 and 2016 is significant in mid-sized cities (18%), a shift toward shrinking city centers is insufficient to change this trajectory.