Does regional natural gas supply produce a shortfall under transition from coal to gas? Case study in Jing-Jin-Ji Region

Abstract

Coal-to-Gas Switching policy plays an important role in improving the environment. However, how to balance gas shortage and environmental quality, has become a serious problem in China. We establish a supply optimization model with the objective of minimizing total supply costs, and the constraints of gas supply capacity, flow balance of each node, as well as effective work volume of gas storage reservoir etc. Jing-Jin-Ji region is chosen as case study and we find that the added demand for Coal-to-Gas switching is 12.607 billion cubic meters by the end of 2021, which is made up by mixed gas imported from Central Asian and Tarim, and increases the total cost by 46.5%. Simultaneously, if the Central Asian gas is cut-off, LNG can be a supplement in peak season, but the system costs will increase 17.5%. If the imported gas from Central Asian is cut-off and the gas from Russia further reduces 8 billion cubic meters in 2025, then a shortage will occur. This study is helpful for government to figure out the risk boundary of supply network, and explore the most appropriate measures to ensure gas security, such as balance ratio of spot and long-term LNG contracts and effective cooperation mechanisms.