Does Nominal devaluation Precede Real Devaluation in Flexible Exchange Rate Regime? A Case Study of Papua New Guinea

Abstract

Economy can be pretentious by the progression of devaluation or depreciation of local currency either positively or negatively. The improvement in trade balance is considered as one of the significant and beneficial impacts occurring on account of devaluation by means of an increase in the volume of exports while lessening in the volume of imports. However, higher inflation would lead to expensive imports that offset the growth of economy resulting from increase in the exports. This reduces the effectiveness of devaluation in bringing down trade deficit. The benefits of devaluation are restricted where inflation severely hits the economy. Moreover, nominal devaluation improves the trade balance when it leads to real devaluation. The relationship between nominal and real effective exchange rates is explored in the present hypothesis. The study is a unique attempt in the case of Papua New Guinea as devaluation has always been a politically sensitive issue. In this paper investigation, regarding “whether nominal devaluation precedes the real devaluation or not” both in the long run as well as in short span of time is done. The order of integration has been found through Ng-Perron, whereas ARDL, Co-integration Johansen Test and DOLS are employed for long run correlations. The findings of the paper clearly indicate the fact that nominal devaluation not only does lead to real devaluation in long span of time but also in the short run. This scenario provides directions for policy-makers to take into consideration both positive and negative implications of devaluation in Papua New Guinea.