Does natural resource influence conflict in Africa? Evidence from panel nonlinear relationship

Abstract

This paper examines the influence of natural resources on conflict over the 2010–2019 period in 54 African countries using a novel quadratic regression model and threshold estimation. The choice of the study's time period was based on violence vulnerability and data availability. The threshold technique and quadratic regression were used as natural resources are theorized to have a U-shape relationship with conflict. The empirical findings show that indicators of natural resources have significant positive effect on violence in Africa at 0.01 significant level. To maintain a conflict-free economy, low unemployment and decreased population growth rates are crucial to resolving the threat of conflict. Thus, policies targeted at reducing the conflict should focus on eliminating or reducing unemployment and control population growth rate. Policies should further ensure that natural resources exploitation and revenue sharing from the resource should be equitable, which can greatly mitigate conflict.