Does National Economic Performance Affect Voter Choice Equally Across Economic Class in Presidential Elections? Observations of New Hampshire 1972-2016

Abstract

Study pertaining to the relationship between performance of the economy and voter behavior continues to be a pertinent question in political economy and electoral studies. Despite the presence of previous studies, there has been little focus to this point on the relationship between national economic performance and voter choice for disparate economic classes in a single state. This paper seeks to identify if performance of the United States’ national economy is uniformly influential on voter choice in presidential elections across disparate economic classes. Through the use of data collected from the New Hampshire Department of State on voting results in presidential elections between 1972 and 2016, as well as per capita income and population data obtained from the New Hampshire Employment Security Department, this paper analyzes calculated correlation coefficients, regression models, and electoral volatility measures for lowest-earning, median-earning, and highest-earning counties within the state of New Hampshire based on average per capita income. Findings reflect election-year performance of the national economy has an appreciable effect on voter choice in presidential elections across economic class, while four-year performance of the national economy has a trivial effect on voter choice. From these results, it is also revealed that access to economic data has no effect on voter behavior. The analysis of electoral volatility reveals a conceivably substantial relationship between economic class and the volatility of electoral outcomes. Further research relating to the value of election-year economic performance on voter behavior, as well as the relationship between economic class and electoral volatility, is also proposed.