Does large-scale ecological restoration threaten food security in China? A moderated mediation model

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Changes in cropland due to ecological restoration can affect the effective supply of food. Combining socio-economic and climate change to build a theoretical framework that integrates ecological restoration (ER), intensive cropland use (ICU), climatic conditions (CCs) and food security (FS). Based on the panel data of Chinese cities at the prefecture level and above from 2000 to 2019, a moderated mediating model is used to investigate the mediating role of ICU in the process of ER affecting FS under the moderation of different CCs such as temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours, and analyze the regional heterogeneity of this mediating effect. The results find that, ER has a significantly negative impact on FS, but the partial mediating role of ICU could weaken this negative effect. Different CCs can play a significant moderating role in the mediating path of ICU. Among them, precipitation and sunshine hours can moderate both the first and second halves of this mediating path, while temperature only moderates the first half of this mediating path. The degree of mediating role of ICU moderated by different CCs exhibits obvious regional heterogeneity. For areas where the average annual temperature is>0.978 °C and the average annual precipitation is below the 800 mm isoprecipitation line, the moderating role of temperature and precipitation can weaken or even completely offset this negative mediating effect, while sunshine hours can weaken or even offset the negative mediating effect nationwide. The dual role of ICU mediation and CCs moderation can effectively weaken the negative impact of ER on FS. In total, ER does not threaten China’s food security.