Does Increasing Ethnic Diversity Reduce Electoral Turnout? The Case of New Zealand 1957–2020

Abstract

A diversifying population may affect electoral turnout when there is an increasing proportion of minorities with weaker voting habits than those of the majority. New Zealand provides an example to test this possibility, by way of growth in the indigenous Māori population and a high level of recent immigration. A large sample dataset provides better estimates of group turnouts than hitherto available. The authors estimate how much ethnic diversification may have affected turnout in New Zealand between the elections of 1957, 2014, and 2020. By adopting a theory that resists conceptualisation of not voting as deviation from ‘civic duty’, the authors avoid ascribing ‘fault’ to this behaviour.