Does increased temperature affect residential mobility? A 20-year nationwide evidence in Australia

Abstract

People adapt to changes in livelihoods and risks caused by summer high temperature in the era of global warming, which may also lead to residential mobility at the individual level and migration flow at the aggregate level. However, little evidence is available to show the long-term localized impact of summer temperature on residential mobility. Our study aims to conduct a 20-year nationwide investigation of the heat-mobility relationship in Australia to reveal how the increase of summer temperature is associated with the change of residential mobility and how such relationship shifts over time. Employing a tri-environmental (i.e., social, built and natural environment) conceptual framework adapted from the Social Ecological Theory, our analyses draw on the Australian census data from 2001 to 2021 together with the earth observation data to quantify multiple confounders in the tri-environmental dimensions in order to reveal the heat-mobility relationship at the national, state, urban and rural scales. We find that locales with significant increase in summer temperature have less inbound residential mobility, that is, people are less likely to move into heat-affected areas. This study enhances the understanding of how global warming affects residential mobility and settlement, and what adaptation strategies are needed to reduce the heat threat and achieve urban sustainability.