Does historic construction suffer or benefit from the urban heat island effect in Ghent and global warming across Europe?

Abstract

Renovating historical buildings with valuable facades often includes interior retrofitting, perhaps entailing an increased durability risk. However, the urban heat island effect and the ongoing climate change might mitigate the severity of frost action and mould growth. By means of heat air moisture (HAM) simulations in Delphin, this study evaluates interior retrofitting of solid masonry on three scales. First, the sensitivity to the intra-urban climatic differences of the freeze–thaw cycles in Ghent is analysed. Secondly, the spatial pattern of freeze–thaw behaviour across Europe is assessed. Finally, the influence of observed climate change on the European freeze–thaw pattern is investigated. A decreasing number of critical freeze–thaw cycles is found when comparing the rural area with the city centre of Ghent. Furthermore, due to climate change, the number of freeze–thaw cycles across Europe generally decreases as well, except at northern latitudes exposed to increased wind-driven rain loads.