Does Harberger–Laursen–Metzler (HLM) Exist in Pakistan? Cointegration, Causality and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition Tests

Abstract

This article investigates the validation of Harberger–Laursen–Metzler hypothesis using Pakistani data over the period of 1978Q1–2012Q4. We have used Gregory–Hansen cointegration approach accommodating structural break in the series. The results confirm the presence of cointegration between the variables. The impact of terms of trade is positive on Pakistan’s trade balance. Domestic income improves local trade balance. Foreign income has a positive impact on Pakistan’s trade balance. The causality analysis indicates the presence of feedback effect between terms of trade and trade balance. Domestic income Granger causes trade balance. The unidirectional causality is running from foreign income to Pakistan’s trade balance. This study opens up new directions for policymakers for improvements in terms of trade to sustain trade balance in Pakistan.