Does fine wine price contain useful information to forecast GDP? Evidence from major developed countries

Abstract

This study provides the first attempt to examine the ability of the price of fine wine to forecast the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the major developed countries. Considering the limitation of a linear Granger causality test in detecting nonlinear causal relationships, a nonlinear Granger causality test is also employed. The results from our nonlinear causality test show that this new variable contains useful information to forecast GDP for the US, the UK, and Australia, suggesting that we may include it as a forecasting variable in GDP forecasting models, especially nonlinear models, for these three countries.