Does FDI affect environmental degradation? Examining pollution haven and pollution halo hypotheses using ARDL modelling

Abstract

Pollution haven hypothesis (PHH) assumes that polluting industries will move to regions with lesser rigorous environmental regulations. On the other hand, pollution halo hypothesis presumes that industries transfer their clean technologies through FDI inflows to the host countries. Following these theoretical perceptions, this paper empirically examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) affects pollution (CO2 emissions) for four selected Asian countries (Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand) over the period 1971-2014. This is done by applying the autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model of Pesaran et al.. The ARDL model is employed under two scenarios: without and with structural breaks. The long-run findings, for both scenarios, suggest support for the pollution haven hypothesis (PHH) for the Philippines only. Whereas, the findings lend support for the pollution halo hypothesis for Malaysia and Singapore. In addition, the paper explores the causality direction between FDI and pollution (CO2 emissions) using the Vector Error Correction model (VECM). The results show mixed long- and short-run Granger causality findings.