Does Drug Use Inhibit Crime Deceleration or Does Crime Inhibit Drug Use Deceleration? A Test of the Reciprocal Risk Postulate of the Worst of Both Worlds Hypothesis

Abstract

ABSTRACTBackground: Prior research has shown that ongoing drug use inhibits the commonly reported maturing out of crime process and that ongoing crime inhibits the commonly reported maturing out of drug use process. Objectives: To test the predictive efficacy of drug use for crime deceleration and of crime for drug deceleration using a prospective analysis of data on a group of 524 male California Youth Authority parolees to see if both effects exist simultaneously. Method: A two-equation regression analysis of Year 3 arrests and illicit drug use was performed, controlling for age, race, marital status, employment status, and number of months free in the community. Results: It was determined that illicit drug use at Year 2 predicted an increase in arrests between the first and third years of the analysis and arrests at Year 2 predicted an increase in illicit drug use over this same time period. Alcohol use, on the other hand, failed to predict a change in arrests and arrests failed to predict a change in alcohol use. Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that illicit drug use may inhibit the natural maturing out of crime process observed in emerging adults whereas involvement in crime may inhibit the natural maturing out of illicit drug use process. These findings not only support the reciprocal risk postulate from the Worst of Both Worlds hypothesis but also have implications for risk prediction, risk management, and treatment.