Does digitalization limit the proliferation of the shadow economy in African countries? An in‐depth panel analysis

Abstract

AbstractWe investigate the relationship between digitalization and the shadow economy in 42 African countries using unbalanced panel data from 2003 to 2016. We begin by drawing on modernization theory to hypothesize that digitalization efforts in African economies represent an augmentation of public service delivery as well as a channel through which the size of the continent's informal economic activity might be reduced. We employ the fixed effects estimation technique as its baseline estimator while correcting for potential endogeneity concerns using an instrumental variable two‐stage least squares technique. We show compelling evidence that digitalization is associated with a decrease in the size of the shadow economy in Africa. However, evidence of a larger influence is driven by the availability of telecommunications infrastructure and the expansion of government online services. These findings suggest that policymakers should invest more in digital technology to formalize Africa's hidden economic activity, particularly to fill the post‐COVID‐19 financing gap.