Does Descriptive Representation Improve Political Efficacy? Evidence from Obama and Clinton

Abstract

Does descriptive representation improve political efficacy? Existing theory suggests that it does: individuals who share their identity with elected officials should have more positive attitudes toward government. However, the effect that has been demonstrated for African Americans is not causally identified, and the hypothesis is under-explored with respect to women. Thus, I examine the effects of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton’s successes on African-American and female political efficacy, using Iowa Electronic Markets contract prices during the 2008 primary to proxy daily shifts in perceptions of Obama and Clinton’s likelihood of winning. I combine this with daily political efficacy measures from the 2008 National Annenberg Election Study. African-American efficacy increases with Obama’s perceived probability of success, while white attitudes are unaffected, casting doubt that descriptive representation’s effect is zero-sum in diverse settings. Clinton’s price is not correlated with women’s efficacy, suggesting that descriptive representation’s effects are less pronounced among women.