Does decarbonization policy decrease disease risks from black carbon in Beijing, China? A comparison study

Abstract

Epidemiology studies evaluating the health effect of the decarbonization policy in Beijing, China are limited. This time series study sought to examine the health effectiveness of BC and PM2.5 in Beijing, a formerly heavily polluted city. Therefore, the objectives of this article were (1) to evaluate the modification effects of temperature on the health effects of black carbon (BC) and fine particles (PM2.5) in Beijing. (2) to compare the health effects of BC and PM2.5 pre- and post-implementation of decarbonization policy. Bivariate Response Surface Model and Generalised Additive Model were used to analyze the modification effects. Comparison analysis was conducted pre- and post-implementation of decarbonization policy. The results indicated that (i) Post-implementation, reductions were noted in non-accidental diseases (RR = 1.064 per 10 μg/m3), circulatory diseases (RR = 1.068 per 10 μg/m3) and respiratory diseases (RR = 1.148 per 10 μg/m3) related to BC; this was especially pronounced on cold days. (ii) Greater reductions in risk of non-accidental, circulatory and respiratory deaths (D-value: 0.134 versus 0.002, 0.180 versus 0.003, 0.176 versus 0.002) were noted for BC than for PM2.5. (iii) Higher risks of the impact of BC on respiratory diseases were observed in females than in males. In conclusion, a stronger correlation existed between BC and mortality on cold days than moderately cold days in Beijing. Furthermore, compared with PM2.5, BC posed a greater disease risk and the effectiveness of the decarbonization policy was more obvious.