Does Crime Undermine Public Support for Democracy? Findings from the Case of Mexico

Abstract

DOES CRIME UNDERMINE PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY? FINDINGS FROM THE CASE OF MEXICO Mary Fran T. Malone University of New Hampshire “What is at stake today is not just the result of an election, but rather the future of democracy, of representative institutions,” announced Mexican President Felipe Calderón shortly before midterm elections in July of 2009.1 Declaring that Mexico was at an historical crossroads, President Calderón cautioned that the future of democracy depended quite heavily on the outcome of his government’s fight against organized crime and corruption. Calderón’s concerns have spilled beyond Mexico’s borders. In the United States, officials have expressed alarm over the increasing tide of violence with a series of controversial statements that have angered Mexican officials. For example, Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair charged that Mexican drug cartels “impede Mexico City’s ability to govern parts of its territory and build effective democratic institutions” (Blair 2009: 30).2 The media have prominently featured such statements, as the outbreak of violent crime in Mexico has dominated headlines in newspapers around the world. Such reports warn that the current crime wave is “the most serious crisis . . . faced since the 1910 Mexican Revolution and its immediate aftermath” (Krauze 2009). Indeed, since Calderón assumed office in December of 2006, over 47,000 people have died from violence related to the drug trade and organized crime.3 In Mexico, crime now shares the national limelight with economic issues . While the global economic crisis has exacerbated historic problems of poverty and inequality, national attention has increasingly focused on crime. When Mexicans were asked to name the most pressing problem facing their country in a recent national survey, crime ranked at the top of the list, together with unemployment and the economic crisis.4 In the week that Calderón gave his warning, the Mexican media coverage of crime dwarfed that of the economy, as reports on crime more than doubled those devoted to economic issues.5 Official statements warning that crime could completely destroy Mexico ’s democratic institutions are clearly exaggerated, but the current crime wave does highlight a question of growing importance throughout the developing world – what impact does crime have on democracy? To answer this question, this study examines the effects of crime on Mexican democracy , but from a different perspective than those of the headlines. The focus here is on the micro level political consequences of crime in Mexico, as this C 2012 Southeastern Council on Latin American Studies and Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 17 The Latin Americanist, June 2013 paper aims to determine whether crime can jeopardize Mexicans’ support for democracy and its norms. To this end, this paper utilizes data gathered by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) in national surveys of Mexico in 2008.6 These surveys contain numerous questions regarding political attitudes and behavior, as well as items measuring experiences with and perceptions of crime. Thus, these data are a particularly valuable resource for examining the linkages between crime and political attitudes and behavior. To examine the micro level consequences of crime for Mexican democracy , this study proceeds in four parts. The first section provides an overview of crime trends in Mexico during the period of democratization , culminating in an examination of the current crime crisis and the responses of the Mexican government. Following this background on the Mexican case, the second portion of the paper turns to examine the literature on crime and democracy. With this theoretical framework, the third section relies upon statistical analysis to gauge the impact of crime on citizens ’ political attitudes (support for democracy and the rule of law) and political behavior (voting behavior and protest participation). The concluding section of the paper discusses the implications of the analysis for political attitudes and behavior in Mexico. Crime and Democratization: The Case of Mexican Exceptionalism Throughout the Latin American region, democratization has coincided with skyrocketing crime rates (Lafree and Tseloni 2006). As most Latin American nations made the twin transitions to neoliberal economies and democratic forms of governance throughout the 1980s and 1990s, they were plagued with rising crime rates, particularly violent crimes like homicides. Cruz (2008) finds that during this time frame...