Does Climate Variability Influence Yield of Major Crops? — A Case Study of Tamil Nadu

Abstract

This paper has examined the impact of climate variability on crop yields and variance thereof in different agro-climatic zones of Indian state of Tamil Nadu. The results indicate that yields of paddy, maize, cotton and sugarcane benefit from the increase in temperature, while yield of banana benefits from the variation in temperature. The precipitation has a positive effect on the yield of cotton but a negative effect on the yield of maize. The yields of most crops, however,are negatively associated with precipitation intensity (ratio of highest monthly precipitation to annual precipitation). If temperature increases, the variance in paddy yield also increases. Likewise, excess rainfall increases variability in the yields of paddy and sugarcane. With climate change by 2030 the maize yield is expected to decrease by 1.4 per cent in the North-Western zone, 1.5 per cent in the Cauvery Delta zone and 2.7 per cent in the Southern zone. Cotton is likely to suffer more with about 13 per cent decline in yield in the North-Eastern zone, 8.1 per cent in the North-Western zone and 2.1 per cent in the Western zone. Sugarcane yield is likely to decline in Cauvery delta (3.8%) and Southern zone (4.7%) of the state. The study has suggested that appropriate weather-based crop insurance policy should be developed to reduce financial loss to the farmers.