Abstract
I examine the estimated economic, ecological, and food security effects of future fishery management reform in Asia. Without climate change, most Asian fisheries stand to gain substantially from reforms. Optimizing fishery management could increase catch by 24% and profit by 34% over business-as-usual management. These benefits arise from fishing some stocks more conservatively and others more aggressively. Although climate change is expected to reduce carrying capacity in 55% of Asian fisheries, I find that under climate change large benefits from fishery management reform are maintained, though these benefits are heterogeneous. The case for reform remains strong for both catch and profit, though these numbers are slightly lower than in the no-climate change case. These results suggest that, to maximize economic output and food security, Asian fisheries will benefit substantially from the transition to catch shares or other economically rational fishery management institutions, despite the looming effects of climate change.
Highlights
Global fisheries have diverged sharply over recent decades
I largely draw on data and methods in Gaines et al (2018), though that paper does not single out any results for Asian fisheries, nor does it ask whether the case for reform is strengthened or weakened under climate change
Note: The solid line is without climate change and the dashed line is with a hypothetical 60% reduction in carrying capacity from climate change
Summary
Global fisheries have diverged sharply over recent decades. High governance, wealthy economies have largely adopted output controls or various forms of catch shares, which has helped fisheries in these economies overcome inefficiencies arising from overfishing (Worm et al 2009) and capital stuffing (Homans and Wilen 1997), and allowed them to turn the corner toward sustainability (Costello, Gaines, and Lynham 2008) and profitability (Costello et al 2016). I largely draw on data and methods in Gaines et al (2018), though that paper does not single out any results for Asian fisheries, nor does it ask whether the case for reform is strengthened or weakened under climate change. This allows me to conduct a species-by-species analysis for 193 species of the most widely harvested fish in Asia, representing about 29 million metric tons in fish catch..
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