Abstract
Climate prediction models suggest that agricultural productivity will be significantly affected in the future. The expected rise in average global temperature due to the higher release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere and increased depletion of water resources with enhanced climate variability will be a serious threat to world food security. Moreover, there is an increase in the frequency and severity of long-lasting drought events over 1/3rd of the global landmass and five times increase in water demand deficits during the 21st century. The top three cereals, wheat (Triticum aestivum), maize (Zea mays), and rice (Oryza sativa), are the major and staple food crops of most people across the world. To meet the food demand of the ever-increasing population, which is expected to increase by over 9 billion by 2050, there is a dire need to increase cereal production by approximately 70%. However, we have observed a dramatic decrease in area of fertile and arable land to grow these crops. This trend is likely to increase in the future. Therefore, this review article provides an extensive review on recent and future projected area and production, the growth requirements and greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential of the top three cereal crops, the effects of climate change on their yields, and the morphological, physiological, biochemical, and hormonal responses of plants to drought. We also discuss the potential strategies to tackle the effects of climate change and increase yields. These strategies include integrated conventional and modern molecular techniques and genomic approach, the implementation of agronomic best management (ABM) practices, and growing climate resilient cereal crops, such as millets. Millets are less resource-intensive crops and release a lower amount of greenhouse gases compared to other cereals. Therefore, millets can be the potential next-generation crops for research to explore the climate-resilient traits and use the information for the improvement of major cereals.
Highlights
Agriculture and climate change are interconnected with each other in different ways because climate change is the main cause of biotic and abiotic stresses that have adverse effects on agricultural production [1]
Based on our predicted trends, we found that the global yields of these top three cereal crops are increasing at 1.07%, 2.99%, and 1.20% per year, at non-compounding rates, respectively (Tables S1–S3) (Source: FAOSTAT [32])
Field bean and maize acclimatized more effectively compared to triticale and amaranth, due to the synthesis of phenolic compounds that act as photo protectors to avoid damage to PSII
Summary
Agriculture and climate change are interconnected with each other in different ways because climate change is the main cause of biotic and abiotic stresses that have adverse effects on agricultural production [1]. Based on our predicted trends, we found that the global yields of these top three cereal crops (rice, maize, and wheat) are increasing at 1.07%, 2.99%, and 1.20% per year, at non-compounding rates, respectively (Tables S1–S3) (Source: FAOSTAT [32]). These rates are less than the 2.4% per year rate needed to double global production by 2050 [34]. Under the Eview 12 software [35], the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to generate the simulated data for both the crop area harvested and total production.
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