Does change in hip circumference predict cardiovascular disease and overall mortality in Danish and Swedish women?

Abstract

Accumulating evidence consistently shows that small hip circumference (HC) is related to increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease, diabetes, and premature death in women. This study aims to clarify whether this inverse association can be found in both normal- and overweight individuals and if change in HC over time relates to morbidity and mortality risk. HC and 6-year change in HC in relation to the risk for all-cause mortality and CVD morbidity and mortality was investigated in a pooled sample of 2,867 women from the DANISH MONICA study and the Prospective Population Study of Women in Gothenburg with a total of 66,627 person-years of follow-up. Baseline HC was significantly and inversely associated with all-cause and CVD-specific mortality after adjustment for BMI, waist circumference (WC), and other covariates. In stratified analyses, the inverse association was weaker in women with a BMI of more than 25 kg/m2. Six-year change in hip size was not associated with mortality or morbidity endpoints. Our results imply the existence of a basal risk associated with small hip size, which is, however, independent from changes in gluteofemoral body mass and therefore unlikely to be modifiable.