Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between public transit mode share and population density. It critically reviews the long-held belief that an increase in population density (compact built form) will result in an increase in public transit ridership. The research developed a longitudinal data set of travel behavior, transit supply, and proxies of built form for 1996 and 2016 for the City of Toronto. The data set is spatially disaggregated at the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level such that the TAZs that divide the City into 480 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive zones. The paper found that a cross-sectional analysis of population density and transit mode share captures mostly the contemporaneous relationship between the two and does not, by default, lend credence to the argument that if the density increases over time at a place, it will subsequently result in higher public transit ridership. Such a question will require a longitudinal analysis where the impact of a change in public density over time is examined to determine its impact, if any, on transit ridership. Using Linear Mixed Models for longitudinal data, the paper found that the contemporaneous relation between density and transit mode share holds, but the change in population density over time does not automatically correlate with an increase in transit ridership

Highlights

  • Cross-sectional empirical evidence and literature regarding the built environment impacts on travel behavior demonstrated urban population density is a predominant explanatory variable in the pattern of transit mode share and auto-dependency; these studies support that density is positively correlated with public transit mode split and/or indicate a negative correlation between density and auto-dependency

  • The present study focuses on only work trips, Transportation Tomorrow Survey (TTS) data allow for the future more comprehensive follow up studies that may analyze the transit mode split for different trip purposes and not necessarily trips destined to work

  • Considering the longitudinal data and within-Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) changes in population density over the course of 20 years, the results indicate that an increase in population density is associated with a slowing rate, and not a proportionate or higher, of increase in transit mode share

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Summary

Introduction

Travel demand is increasing in many countries. Transportation sector accounts for 14% of the global greenhouse gas emissions produced in 2010 (United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2017) and plays part in world’s climate change. The famous studies by Newman and Kenworthy (1989, 1991), and Kenworthy and Laube (1996), which compared population densities and transit mode share across thirty-two world’s major cities, indicated that cities with higher population densities reported higher transit mode share and less petrol use per capita. In European cities where population densities are high, the fuel taxes are high, and the cities built form is from centuries old style that does not permit parking or enough street width for two-way traffic In such circumstances, public transit has the natural enabling environment to service mobility needs. This research compares population densities at the Transportation Analysis Zone level over a 20year period in the City of Toronto to determine whether a change in population density from 1996 to 2016, while controlling for other relevant explanatory variables, is correlated with the commensurate increase in transit mode share. Important in the study is to control for the changes in supply of transit services over time

Literature Review
Design
Methodology
Limitations
Findings
Discussion and Conclusion

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