Does Agriculture Matter for Economic Development? Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

Abstract

In this study we aimed at answering the question, ‘Does agriculture matter for economic development in Nigeria?’ Life expectancy is modeled against agricultural output and agricultural expenditure, amongst other variables. Agricultural output is also modeled against a host of socio-economic, natural and human factors, which influence agricultural productivity. Applying Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, Ordinary Least Squares, and the Newey-West method on secondary data and dummy variable used in the study, it was found that agricultural output has negative and significant impact on life expectancy in Nigeria. The impact of agricultural expenditure was found to be positive but nonsignificant. Real gross domestic product and industrial output were also found to influence life expectancy. Careful examination of the hypothesized socio-economic factors (political instability and industrial output), natural factor (rainfall), and human factor (carbon emission) showed that only industrial output and rainfall matter for agricultural output in the country: both variables have positive impacts on agricultural output. The study submits that as much as agriculture may matter for economic development, reliance on the sector alone without corresponding and simultaneous development of other crucial sectors such as education, health, and industry will not yield positive fruits for economic development in Nigeria.