Does a sanitary crisis drive oil prices and carbon emissions in the USA? Evidence from VECM modeling.

Abstract

This study explores the interdependence among a sanitary crisis, environmental degradation, oil prices, and economic activity in the USA based on weekly data over the period from January 03, 2020, to October 02, 2020, through VECM and Granger causality methods. The study period is characterized by lockdowns and mobility restrictions due to COVID-19 pandemic that may affect the economic and energy sector in the USA. Thus, a meticulous analysis of the impact of a sanitary crisis on economic and energy sectors seems to be crucial. Findings are very interesting and confirm the existence of a significant impact of a COVID-19 pandemic on WTI oil price. More importantly, bidirectional causal relations between the three couples: COVID-19 infections–carbon emission, COVID-19 infections–economic growth, and COVID-19 infections–oil price are also discovered. Taken together, our empirical findings are effective for the relevant authorities and policymakers in the USA to develop an appropriate financial and fiscal policy such as reducing interest rates, subsidizing, promoting sustainable industrialization, and carbon taxation to boost investment and to recover the economic growth without harming the environment and complicating the sanitary situation.