Does a “Blue Revolution” help the poor? Evidence from Bangladesh

Shahidur Rashid,Solomon Lemma,Nicholas Minot

doi:10.1111/agec.12472

Abstract

AbstractThe rapid growth in aquaculture production, globally and in Bangladesh is well documented. Over 2000–2010, per capita production of aquaculture grew 76%, while the consumer price of fish declined 45%. Previous studies have suggested pro‐poor effects of aquaculture based on fish production and consumption patterns. This study attempts to quantify the contribution of aquaculture to income growth and poverty reduction in Bangladesh, using household survey data and a microsimulation approach based on an expanded version of Deaton's concept of net benefit ratio. We estimate that aquaculture's contribution to income growth between 2000 and 2010 was 2.1%, including both price and quantity effects. This income growth was translated into poverty reduction of 1.7 percentage points. Although these estimates seem small, they represent almost 10% of the overall poverty reduction in Bangladesh during the first decade of the 21st century. Put differently, of the 18 million Bengalis who escaped poverty during 2000–2010, about 1.8 million of them managed to do so because of the rapid growth in aquaculture, which contributed to rural income while making fish more accessible to consumers.

Highlights

Aquaculture is one of the world’s fastest growing food-producing sectors, and its share in global fish consumption by humans is projected to grow to more than 60 percent by 2030 (FAO 2014)
The Department of Fisheries (DoF) began collecting data on seasonal culture fish production in 2009/2010, when it recorded a total production of about 46,000 tons; this number increased to 201,000 tons by 2012/2013
We propose a strategy for estimating the contribution of aquaculture development to overall income growth and poverty reduction

Summary

Introduction

Aquaculture is one of the world’s fastest growing food-producing sectors, and its share in global fish consumption by humans is projected to grow to more than 60 percent by 2030 (FAO 2014). Until the mid1990s, aquaculture had been the smallest of the three main types of fisheries—marine, inland capture, and aquaculture—in the country, representing only 16 percent of total fish production; but it has grown to become the largest type, accounting for 56 percent of total fish production (DoF, 2015) This growth and structural change have contributed to increasing fish availability, reducing the real price of fish, and generating employment, with important implications for poverty reduction and nutritional well-being. This paper attempts to fill these gaps in the literature It uses micro-simulation methods to analyze the impacts of aquaculture growth on income distribution and poverty in Bangladesh using an expanded version of Deaton’s (1989) model and several rounds of nationally representative household survey data.

Trends in Aquaculture in Bangladesh

Marine fisheries

Data and Methods

Findings

Welfare Implications of Aquaculture Growth