Documented changes in annual runoff and attribution since the 1950s within selected rivers in China

Abstract

To enable local water resource management and maintenance of ecosystem integrity and to protect and mitigate against flood and drought, it is necessary to determine changes in long-term series of streamflow and to distinguish the roles that climate change and human disturbance play in these changes. A review of previous research on the detection and attribution of observed changes in annual runoff in China shows a decrease in annual runoff since the 1950s in northern China in areas such as the Songhuajiang River water resources zone, the Liaohe River water resources zone, the Haihe River water resources zone, the Yellow River water resources zone, and the Huaihe River water resources Zone. Furthermore, abrupt changes in annual runoff occurred mostly in the 1970s and 1980s in all the above zones, except for some of the sub-basins in the middle Yellow River where abrupt change occurred in the 1990s. Changes in annual runoff are found to be mainly caused by climate change in the western Songhuajiang River basin, the upper mainstream of the Yangtze River, and the western Pearl River basin, which shows that studies on the impact of climate change on future water resources under different climate change scenarios are required to enable planning and management by agencies in these river basins. However, changes in annual runoff were found to be mainly caused by human activities in most of the catchments in northern China (such as the southern Songhuajiang River, Liaohe River, Haihe River, the lower reach and some of the catchments within the middle Yellow River basin) and in middle-eastern China, such as the Huaihe River and lower mainstream of the Yangtze River. This suggests that current hydro-climatic data can continue to be used in water-use planning and that policymakers need to focus on water resource management and protection.