Abstract
This study addresses the reconstruction of 4 slightly different drought indices in the Czech Lands (now the Czech Republic) back to 1501 AD. Reconstructed monthly temperatures for Central Europe that are representative for the Czech territory, together with reconstructed seasonal precipitation totals from the same area, are used to calculate monthly, seasonal and annual drought indices (SPI, SPEI, Z-index, and scPDSI). The resulting time series reflect interannual to multi-decadal drought variability. The driest episodes cluster around the beginning and end of the 18th century, while 1540 emerges as a particularly dry extreme year. The temperature-driven dryness of the past 3 decades is well captured by SPEI, Z-index and scPDSI, whereas precipitation totals show no significant trend during this period (as reflected in SPI). Data and methodological uncertainty associated with Czech drought indices, as well as their position in a greater European context, are critically outlined. Comparison with fir tree-rings from southern Moravia and a spatial subset of the ‘Old World Drought Atlas’ (OWDA) reveals statistically significant correlation coefficients, of around 0.40 and 0.50, respectively. This study introduces a new documentary-based approach for the robust extension of standardised drought indices back into pre-instrumental times, which we also believe has great potential in other parts of the world where high-resolution paleoclimatic insight remains limited.
Highlights
The fifth IPCC report (Stocker et al 2013) indicates the Mediterranean region is one of the most drought-prone areas of Europe, based on recent global warming projections, drought indices indicate an important increase in drought in Central Europe from the year 2000, as has been shown, Publisher: Inter-Research · www.int-res.comClim Res 70: 103–117, 2016 rings of trees sensitive to hydroclimatic patterns in their area of growth (Brázdil et al 2002, Büntgen et al 2010, 2011a, Cook et al 2015, Dobrovolný et al 2015b).Several drought indices have been developed for the detection, monitoring and evaluation of drought episodes
Reconstructed monthly temperatures for Central Europe that are representative for the Czech territory, together with reconstructed seasonal precipitation totals from the same area, are used to calculate monthly, seasonal and annual drought indices (SPI, SPEI, Z-index, and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI))
The temperature-driven dryness of the past 3 decades is well captured by SPEI, Z-index and scPDSI, whereas precipitation totals show no significant trend during this period
Summary
The fifth IPCC report (Stocker et al 2013) indicates the Mediterranean region is one of the most drought-prone areas of Europe, based on recent global warming projections, drought indices indicate an important increase in drought in Central Europe from the year 2000, as has been shown, Publisher: Inter-Research · www.int-res.comClim Res 70: 103–117, 2016 rings of trees sensitive to hydroclimatic patterns in their area of growth (Brázdil et al 2002, Büntgen et al 2010, 2011a, Cook et al 2015, Dobrovolný et al 2015b).Several drought indices have been developed for the detection, monitoring and evaluation of drought episodes (for overviews, see e.g. Byun & Wilhite 1999, Heim 2000, 2002, Vogt & Somma 2000, Wu et al 2007, Niemeyer 2008). The indices created are able to describe various aspects of meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and groundwater droughts (Heim 2002, Mishra & Singh 2010, Dai 2011), none of them can be used across the board. The differences among them arise out of the input data used, the intervals for which the values of the indices are integrated and the ways in which each individual index is calculated. Such indices are usually selected with respect to the aims of any given study, or aspects under particular investigation
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