Doğal Kaynak Zenginliği ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinde Yönetişim Göstergelerinin Aracılık Etkisi: MENA ve Hazar Ülkelerinden Ampirik Bulgular

Abstract

This study purposes to identify the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and natural resources abundance, focusing on the mediator roles of governance indicators for selected 21 MENA and Caspian countries. Governance indicators used in the study are World Bank’s six global governance indicators. Annual panel data for the period of 1996-2012 are used. In this context, the study estimates the impact of crude oil production per capita (independent variable) on GDP per capita (dependent variable) at first, and then hierarchical panel regression analyses are conducted to determine the mediator variable roles of the governance indicators in this relationship. Sobel test is also applied to confirm whether the mediation effect is significant. Results from the pairwise panel regression analyses reveal that crude oil production per capita is negatively associated with all worldwide governance indicators, mostly with control of corruption, voice and accountability and regulatory quality. The progressive improvements of all dimensions of governance indicators, especially control of corruption, rule of law and government effectiveness, seem to promote GDP per capita. Results from the hierarchical regression analysis demonstrate that governance indicators play an important role as a partial mediator in the relationships crude oil production and GDP per capita. This evidence supports that weak governance indicators tend to hinder natural resources abundance to contribute economic growth. Overall findings highlight the increasing importance of policies intending to reduce corruption and violence, together with stimulating legitimacy, transparency and institutional quality for the countries investigated.