Do You See What I See? The Future of Virtual Shopping

Abstract

New technologies captivate our imaginations. We have seen a breathtaking stream of innovations--solar cells, nuclear fusion, biotechnology, genetic engineering, artificial intelligence, robotics, space travel, virtual reality, and many others--all promising to transform our lives. For better or worse, the actual impact of these innovations is often much less (and takes much longer) than what we expected. In some cases, unforeseen technical problems have stalled the development process, blocking an innovation's move from the laboratory into the marketplace. In others, consumers have resisted change, instead choosing to maintain the status quo. Existing technologies have also continued to evolve, making it unnecessary to switch to something new. In recent years, the Internet has generated a tremendous level of excitement. Business magazines are filled with articles describing how life will be different in a digital age. High-technology stocks have soared on investors' expectations of the creation of new wealth and the transformation of existing businesses. Some of the most sensational predictions have been made with regard to electronic commerce. Maurice Saatchi, a prominent figure in the advertising industry, forecast that in 40 years, electronic retailing will eliminate the need for physical stores (Cope 1996:18). Andersen Consulting predicted that in the next decade, 20 percent of supermarket shopping will be conducted through nonstore electronic channels (McGrath 1994). Negroponte (1995) argued that, as a consequence of electronic distribution, "videocassette-rental stores will go out of business in less than ten years" (p. 173). And Jupiter Communications, a New York market research firm, estimated that interactive home shopping would expand to $82.35 billion by the year 2003 (Conway 1994:26).