Do you need cobalt ore? Estimating potential trade relations through link prediction

Abstract

Cobalt is an important metal resource in supporting the development of strategic emerging industries. Recently, it has been widely used in the field of new energy. Cobalt ore and its concentrates are the main sources of cobalt raw materials in various countries. These countries’ international trade relations will affect the stability of the cobalt resource supply, so it is particularly important to predict the future trade relationships for cobalt ore. This study first selects international trade data on cobalt ore from 2009 to 2018 and calculates the stability of the trade network. Then, the potential international trade relationships for cobalt ore are evaluated by building a link prediction analysis model including the role of trade countries for cobalt ore and identifying the overall utilization level of national cobalt sources in combination with the international trade of cobalt waste and scrap. The results show that trade instability has increased in the past three years. The Netherlands and China, Germany and China, the United States and China, Morocco and the Netherlands, the Republic of Korea and the United States are most likely to trade cobalt ore in the next three years; China and India, China and the Czech Republic, and the Netherlands and South Africa are most likely to trade cobalt ore in the next five years. According to the predicted results, governments can find more new trading partners and expand the diversification of cobalt source countries. In addition, cobalt resource utilization needs to be improved.