Do We Need Taagepera’s Quantitatively Predictive Logical Models in Political Science? Evidence from Polish Local Elections

Abstract

ABSTRACT Rein Taagepera, considerably assisted by Matthew S. Shugart, is an author and advocate of one of the most interesting methodological approaches in recent years; and this applies not only to political science but also – more broadly – to social sciences based on quantitatively predictive logical models. This method consists of constructing – based on deduction and the principles of logic – a conceptual logical model which is subsequently supposed to be subject to testing by dint of a statistical analysis of empirical data. In this paper, on the basis of an analysis of the works by Taagepera and Shugart on the subject, a comprehensive reconstruction of the said approach shall be conducted. The quantitatively predictive logical model of the number of seat-winning parties in the electoral district shall serve as an exemplary pattern of constructing and – more importantly – it will allow for testing the predictive powers of this sort of models. So far no one has tried to test this model by looking at data from local elections. A large sample of electoral districts obtained from Polish local elections in 2018 gives such a unique opportunity.