Do US City Crime Rates Follow a National Trend? The Influence of Nationwide Conditions on Local Crime Patterns

Abstract

This study considers the degree to which the crime rates of US cities follow a uniform national trend. A nationwide trend has consequences for theories that explain aggregate changes in crime, but how closely subnational units hold to a common time path has received almost no research attention. Using annual panel data, the current study presents analyses that attempt to measure the correspondence between city-level and national-level crime rates. The results of each analysis are consistent with a clear single pattern that operates across the nation’s major urban areas. This supports the idea that a meaningful national trend exists, and it suggests the desirability of continuing efforts to explain it.