Do uncertain outcomes matter for ticket prices? Examination of the National Football League's secondary ticket market

Abstract

PurposeThis study examines the impact of outcome uncertainty on the National Football League (NFL) secondary ticket market prices. As a demand-driven market, it is essential to comprehend how resellers respond to outcome uncertainty, one of the consumer demand factors in sports.Design/methodology/approachUsing real-time ticket prices and money lines as a proxy of the probabilities of winning, this study employs a regression analysis and examines 33,554 price observations from the NFL’s secondary ticket market partner, StubHub.FindingsThe result shows a positive relationship between outcome uncertainty and secondary market ticket prices, indicating that resellers adjust the prices in response to the level of outcome uncertainty and put more value on games with greater uncertainty. This finding confirms the demand-driven nature of the secondary ticket market, as outcome uncertainty is one of the demand factors in sports.Originality/valueThis study links the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis with secondary ticket market pricing and fills a gap in the literature by providing an important perspective on games with uncertainty in the secondary ticket market. Outcome uncertainty has limited understanding in relation to secondary ticket market pricing despite its relationship with consumer demand. The positive relationship between outcome uncertainty and the ticket prices, grounded in real-time price data and win probability from sport betting markets, enhances our understanding of price determinations in the secondary ticket market.