Do UK Higher Education Students Overestimate Their Starting Salary?*

Abstract

AbstractThe wage expectations of university students have relevance for human capital theory, models of student enrolment, and public policy on the provision of higher education. However, these expectations have been the subject of relatively little research in European countries, with no contemporary evidence available in the UK. There has also been little consideration in the literature thus far of how much estimates may be biased by non‐response and sample selection. This paper thus makes an original contribution to the literature by comparing UK undergraduate students' wage expectations with the actual wages earned by the same cohort on graduation, after attempting to correct for the aforementioned statistical issues in terms of observable characteristics. In contrast to other European studies, I conclude that, on average, full‐time students overestimate their starting salary. Yet I also find substantial variation in the extent of overestimation between different subgroups.